New National Lottery Changes – Good Value or Not?

The organisers of the UK national lottery draw (aka Lotto) are planning to make some changes to the structure of the draw and in particular the various prize tiers. A summary of the changes are as follows

  • Jackpot prize boosted by between 13% (Wednesday) and 22% (Saturday)
  • Match 5+Bonus prize halved
  • Match 5 prize reduced by 33%
  • Match 4 prize bosted by 67%
  • Match 3 prize boosted by 150% (from £10 to £25)
  • New lotto raffle that works similar to the Euromillions Millionaire Raffle that will create 50 prizes of £20k each draw
  • Lotto Plus 5 will end

These changes come at a cost though as the ticket price will be doubling to £2. So in theory the prize fund will also double as a result. Well it’s either the prize fund, good causes or Camelot’s profit margins. So lets see which.

I’ve taken the prize and number of winners data from the draw which took place on the 29th December 2012. It’s a Saturday draw, isn’t a rollover and besides higher than average prizes at some of the tiers it’s a pretty unremarkable draw which will do for our calculations. The following table lays out the old prizes and the new prizes with the percentage increases or reductions detailed above. I’ve had to assume that ticket sales will remain constant and have merely amended the prize tiers as detailed above

Tier Number of Winners Old Prize Old Prize Fund New Prize New Prize Fund
Jackpot 2 £2,147,580 £4,295,160 £2,620,047.60 £5,240,095.20
Match 5B 5 £264,317 £1,321,585 £132,158.50 £660,792.50
Match 5 312 £2,647 £825,864 £1764.67 £550,576
Match 4 19553 £92 £1,798,876 £153.33 £2,998,126.67
Match 3 404608 £10 £4,046080 £25 £10,115,200
Raffle 50 £0 £0 £20,000 £1,000,000
Total Prize Fund £12,287,565 £20,564,790.37

Let’s hope the spare £4,000,000 is going to good causes

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